OPENAIRE OpenAire IIASA PURE Datacite Research.fi OceanRep HAL-INSU Crossref White Rose Research Online PubMed Central Copenhagen University Research Information System European Union Open Data Portal https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/62739/1/1-s2.0-S2590332225001794-main.pdf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20730/1/1-s2.0-S2590332225001794-main.pdf https://doi.org/10.48620/90780 One Earth Open Access 2024-10-23 2025-07-02 2024-10-23 2025-08-19 2025-09-19 Meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C-2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands' net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO2 (22-48 GtCO2). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16-60 GtCO2) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios. [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology climate change northern peatlands carbon greenhouse gases land surface model reduced-complexity earth system model FairCarboN temperature feedback [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment Article overshoot Zhu, Biqing, Qiu, Chunjing, Gasser, Thomas, Ciais, Philippe, Lamboll, Robin, Ballantyne, Ashley, Chang, Jinfeng, Chaudhary, Nitin, Gallego-Sala, Angela, Guenet, Bertrand, Holden, Joseph, Joos, Fortunat, Kleinen, Thomas, Kwon, Min, Melnikova, Irina, Müller, Jurek, Page, Susan, Salmon, Elodie, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Schurgers, Guy, Shrivastav, Gaurav, Shurpali, Narasinha, Tanaka, Katsumasa, Wårlind, David, Westermann, Sebastian, Xi, Yi, Zhang, Wenxin, Zhang, Yuan, Zhu, Dan, 2024-10-23 journalpaper Meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C-2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands' net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO2 (22-48 GtCO2). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16-60 GtCO2) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios. Warming of Northern Peatlands Increases the Global Temperature Overshoot Challenge 10.48620/90780 101000289