Dust emission fluxes during wind soil erosion are usually estimated using a dust concentration vertical gradient, by assuming a constant dust flux layer between the surface and the dust measurement levels. Here, we investigate the existence of this layer during erosion events recorded in Iceland and Jordan. Size\uffe2\uff80\uff90resolved dust fluxes were estimated at three levels between 2 and 4\uffc2\uffa0m using the eddy\uffe2\uff80\uff90covariance method. Dust fluxes were found mainly constant only between the two upper levels in Iceland, the lower dust flux being often stronger and richer in coarse particles, while dust fluxes in Jordan were nearly constant across all levels. The wind dynamics could not explain the absence of a constant dust flux layer in Iceland. We show that the presence of stationary dust source patches in Iceland, related to surface humidity, created a non\uffe2\uff80\uff90uniform dust layer near the surface, named dust roughness sublayer (DRSL), where individual plumes behind each patch interact but do not fully mix. The lowest dust measurement level was probably located within this sublayer while the upper ones were located above, such that there the emitted dust became spatially well\uffe2\uff80\uff90mixed. This explains near the surface in Iceland, the more intermittent dust concentration, its low correlation with the dust concentrations above, and the richer dust flux in coarse particles due to their lower deposition contribution. Our findings highlight the importance of estimating dust fluxes above a dust blending height whose characteristics depend on the dust source patchiness caused by surface humidity or the presence of sparse non\uffe2\uff80\uff90erosive elements.Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) aims to deliver timely and reliable forecasts that may help to mitigate seismic risk during earthquake sequences. In this paper, we build the first OEF system for the State of Israel, and we evaluate its reliability. This first version of the OEF system is composed of one forecasting model, which is based on a stochastic clustering Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence (ETES) model. For every day of the forecasting time period, January 1, 2016 - November 15, 2020, the OEF-Israel system produces a weekly forecast for target earthquakes with local magnitudes greater than 4.0 and 5.5 in the entire State of Israel. Specifically, it provides space-time-dependent seismic maps of the weekly probabilities, obtained by using a fixed set of the model\uffe2\uff80\uff99s parameters, which are estimated through the maximum likelihood technique based on a learning period of about 32\uffc2\uffa0years (1983\uffe2\uff80\uff932015). According to the guidance proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), we also perform the N- and S-statistical tests to verify the reliability of the forecasts. Results show that the OEF system forecasts a number of events comparable to the observed one, and also captures quite well the spatial distribution of the real catalog with the exception of two target events that occurred in low seismicity regions.
", "keywords": ["seismic predictability in the short-term", "Science", "Q", "statistical tests", "reliable forecasts", "operational earthquake forecasting", "01 natural sciences", "ETES model; operational earthquake forecasting; reliable forecasts; seismic predictability in the short-term; statistical tests", "ETES model", "0105 earth and related environmental sciences"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.729282"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Frontiers%20in%20Earth%20Science", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.3389/feart.2021.729282", "name": "item", "description": "10.3389/feart.2021.729282", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.3389/feart.2021.729282"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2021-09-07T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10138/579229", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-06-24T16:25:27Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2024-06-11", "title": "Impact of Dust Source Patchiness on the Existence of a Constant Dust Flux Layer During Aeolian Erosion Events", "description": "AbstractDust emission fluxes during wind soil erosion are usually estimated using a dust concentration vertical gradient, by assuming a constant dust flux layer between the surface and the dust measurement levels. Here, we investigate the existence of this layer during erosion events recorded in Iceland and Jordan. Size\uffe2\uff80\uff90resolved dust fluxes were estimated at three levels between 2 and 4\uffc2\uffa0m using the eddy\uffe2\uff80\uff90covariance method. Dust fluxes were found mainly constant only between the two upper levels in Iceland, the lower dust flux being often stronger and richer in coarse particles, while dust fluxes in Jordan were nearly constant across all levels. The wind dynamics could not explain the absence of a constant dust flux layer in Iceland. We show that the presence of stationary dust source patches in Iceland, related to surface humidity, created a non\uffe2\uff80\uff90uniform dust layer near the surface, named dust roughness sublayer (DRSL), where individual plumes behind each patch interact but do not fully mix. The lowest dust measurement level was probably located within this sublayer while the upper ones were located above, such that there the emitted dust became spatially well\uffe2\uff80\uff90mixed. This explains near the surface in Iceland, the more intermittent dust concentration, its low correlation with the dust concentrations above, and the richer dust flux in coarse particles due to their lower deposition contribution. Our findings highlight the importance of estimating dust fluxes above a dust blending height whose characteristics depend on the dust source patchiness caused by surface humidity or the presence of sparse non\uffe2\uff80\uff90erosive elements.