{"type": "FeatureCollection", "features": [{"id": "10.1111/gcb.15547", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:18:02Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2021-02-06", "title": "Feasibility of the 4 per 1000 aspirational target for soil carbon: A case study for France", "description": "Abstract

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is a promising way to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Based on a simple ratio between CO2 anthropogenic emissions and SOC stocks worldwide, it has been suggested that a 0.4% (4 per 1000) yearly increase in SOC stocks could compensate for current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here, we used a reverse RothC modelling approach to estimate the amount of C inputs to soils required to sustain current SOC stocks and to increase them by 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 per year over a period of 30\uffc2\uffa0years. We assessed the feasibility of this aspirational target first by comparing the required C input with net primary productivity (NPP) flowing to the soil, and second by considering the SOC saturation concept. Calculations were performed for mainland France, at a 1\uffc2\uffa0km grid cell resolution. Results showed that a 30%\uffe2\uff80\uff9340% increase in C inputs to soil would be needed to obtain a 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 increase per year over a 30\uffe2\uff80\uff90year period. 88.4% of cropland areas were considered unsaturated in terms of mineral\uffe2\uff80\uff90associated SOC, but characterized by a below target C balance, that is, less NPP available than required to reach the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 aspirational target. Conversely, 90.4% of unimproved grasslands were characterized by an above target C balance, that is, enough NPP to reach the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 objective, but 59.1% were also saturated. The situation of improved grasslands and forests was more evenly distributed among the four categories (saturated vs. unsaturated and above vs below target C balance). Future data from soil monitoring networks should enable to validate these results. Overall, our results suggest that, for mainland France, priorities should be (1) to increase NPP returns in cropland soils that are unsaturated and have a below target carbon balance and (2) to preserve SOC stocks in other land uses.

", "keywords": ["[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences", "Carbon Sequestration", "550", "[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes", "RothC", "01 natural sciences", "630", "climate change mitigation", "Soil", "4 per 1000", "net primary productivity", "[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces", " environment", "0105 earth and related environmental sciences", "[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean", " Atmosphere", "2. Zero hunger", "[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean", "[SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences", "Atmosphere", "[SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean", " Atmosphere", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "Primary Research Articles", "[SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces", " environment", "Carbon", "soil organic carbon", "[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes", "13. Climate action", "SOC saturation", "Feasibility Studies", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries", "France", "[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces", "environment"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gcb.15547"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15547"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Global%20Change%20Biology", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.1111/gcb.15547", "name": "item", "description": "10.1111/gcb.15547", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.1111/gcb.15547"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2021-04-08T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10.1111/ejss.13330", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:17:58Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2022-12-02", "title": "Multi\u2010modelling predictions show high uncertainty of required carbon input changes to reach a 4\u2030 target", "description": "Abstract

Soils store vast amounts of carbon (C) on land, and increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in already managed soils such as croplands may be one way to remove C from the atmosphere, thereby limiting subsequent warming. The main objective of this study was to estimate the amount of additional C input needed to annually increase SOC stocks by 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 at 16 long\uffe2\uff80\uff90term agricultural experiments in Europe, including exogenous organic matter (EOM) additions. We used an ensemble of six SOC models and ran them under two configurations: (1) with default parametrization and (2) with parameters calibrated site\uffe2\uff80\uff90by\uffe2\uff80\uff90site to fit the evolution of SOC stocks in the control treatments (without EOM). We compared model simulations and analysed the factors generating variability across models. The calibrated ensemble was able to reproduce the SOC stock evolution in the unfertilised control treatments. We found that, on average, the experimental sites needed an additional 1.5 \uffc2\uffb1\uffe2\uff80\uff891.2\uffc2\uffa0Mg C ha\uffe2\uff88\uff921\uffc2\uffa0year\uffe2\uff88\uff921 to increase SOC stocks by 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 per year over 30\uffe2\uff80\uff89years, compared to the C input in the control treatments (multi\uffe2\uff80\uff90model median \uffc2\uffb1 median standard deviation across sites). That is, a 119% increase compared to the control. While mean annual temperature, initial SOC stocks and initial C input had a significant effect on the variability of the predicted C input in the default configuration (i.e., the relative standard deviation of the predicted C input from the mean), only water\uffe2\uff80\uff90related variables (i.e., mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) explained the divergence between models when calibrated. Our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks in agriculture and accentuates the need to increasingly lean on multi\uffe2\uff80\uff90model ensembles when predicting SOC stock trends and related processes. To increase the reliability of SOC models under future climate change, we suggest model developers to better constrain the effect of water\uffe2\uff80\uff90related variables on SOC decomposition.

Highlights

The feasibility of the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 target was studied at 16 long\uffe2\uff80\uff90term agricultural experiments.

An ensemble of soil organic carbon models was used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions.

On average across the sites, carbon input had to increase by 119% compared to initial conditions.

High uncertainty of the simulations was mainly driven by water\uffe2\uff80\uff90related variables.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in arable soils is a challenging goal. We focused on the effect of crop rotation and previous land use for future carbon sequestration on two experimental fields on Retisols with four contrasting fertilization treatments each. We analyzed the SOC dynamics and used the RothC model to forecast the SOC. We found a consistent increase in SOC stocks and stable fractions of the soil organic matter (SOM) with C accumulation in the next 70 years compared to the 90-year experimental period, more evident under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) compared with the RCP8.5 scenario. The expected increase in SOC will be higher in the crop rotation with a grass field than in the experiment with an alternation of row crops and cereals. The efficiency depended on stable SOM fractions, and fields with more extended cultivation history showed higher SOM stability. Proper crop rotations are more important for SOC stability than the uncertainty associated with the climate change scenarios that allows timely adaptation. The goal of a 4\u2030 annual increase of SOC stocks may be reached under rotation with grasses in 2020\u201340 and 2080\u201390 when applying a mineral or organic fertilizer system for scenario RCP4.5 and a mineral fertilizer system in 2080\u20132090 for scenario RCP8.5.

", "keywords": ["2. Zero hunger", "fertilizer system", "Retisols", "S", "Agriculture", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "RothC model", "soil organic carbon", "long-term experiments", "climate change", "\u201c4 per 1000\u201d initiative", "13. Climate action", "anatomy_morphology", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries"]}, "links": [{"href": "http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/2/226/pdf"}, {"href": "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/2/226/pdf"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202012.0133.v1"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Agronomy", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.20944/preprints202012.0133.v1", "name": "item", "description": "10.20944/preprints202012.0133.v1", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.20944/preprints202012.0133.v1"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2020-12-07T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10.20944/preprints202012.0208.v1", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:18:58Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2020-12-09", "title": "Arable Podzols are A Substantial Carbon Sink under Current and Future Climate: Evidence From a Long-Term Experiment in Vladimir Region, Russia", "description": "

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an essential condition for soil health and a potential sink for greenhouse gases. SOC dynamics in a long-term field experiment with mineral and organic fertilization on loamy sand Podzol in Vladimir Region, Russia, was traced with the dynamic carbon model RothC since 1968 until the present time. During this period, C stock increased 21% compared with the initial level in the treatment with the application of manure in an average annual rate of 10 t·ha-1. The model was also used to forecast SOC changes until 2090 for two contrasting RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios. Until 2090, the steady growth of SOC stocks is expected in all compared treatments for both climate scenarios. This rate of growth was the highest until 2040, decreased in 2040-2070 and increased again in 2070-2090 for RCP4.5. The highest annual gain was within 21-27‰ under RCP4.5 and 16-21‰ in 2020-2040 in 0-20 cm soil layer. The expected accumulation of C allows increasing current C stock 1.6-1.7 times for RCP4.5 and 2.0-2.2 times for RCP8.5 scenario. Modelling demonstrated potentially more favourable conditions for SOC stability in arable Podzols than in Retisols in Central Russia in the 21st century.

", "keywords": ["2. Zero hunger", "soil health", "S", "podzols", "Agriculture", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "RothC model", "soil organic carbon", "long-term experiments", "climate change", "\u201c4 per 1000\u201d initiative", "13. Climate action", "anatomy_morphology", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries"]}, "links": [{"href": "http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/1/90/pdf"}, {"href": "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/1/90/pdf"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202012.0208.v1"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Agronomy", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.20944/preprints202012.0208.v1", "name": "item", "description": "10.20944/preprints202012.0208.v1", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.20944/preprints202012.0208.v1"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2020-12-08T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10.3390/agronomy11010090", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:19:35Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2020-12-09", "title": "Arable Podzols are A Substantial Carbon Sink under Current and Future Climate: Evidence From a Long-Term Experiment in Vladimir Region, Russia", "description": "

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an essential condition for soil health and a potential sink for greenhouse gases. SOC dynamics in a long-term field experiment with mineral and organic fertilization on loamy sand Podzol in Vladimir Region, Russia, was traced with the dynamic carbon model RothC since 1968 until the present time. During this period, C stock increased 21% compared with the initial level in the treatment with the application of manure in an average annual rate of 10 t·ha-1. The model was also used to forecast SOC changes until 2090 for two contrasting RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios. Until 2090, the steady growth of SOC stocks is expected in all compared treatments for both climate scenarios. This rate of growth was the highest until 2040, decreased in 2040-2070 and increased again in 2070-2090 for RCP4.5. The highest annual gain was within 21-27‰ under RCP4.5 and 16-21‰ in 2020-2040 in 0-20 cm soil layer. The expected accumulation of C allows increasing current C stock 1.6-1.7 times for RCP4.5 and 2.0-2.2 times for RCP8.5 scenario. Modelling demonstrated potentially more favourable conditions for SOC stability in arable Podzols than in Retisols in Central Russia in the 21st century.

", "keywords": ["2. Zero hunger", "soil health", "S", "podzols", "Agriculture", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "RothC model", "soil organic carbon", "long-term experiments", "climate change", "\u201c4 per 1000\u201d initiative", "13. Climate action", "anatomy_morphology", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries"]}, "links": [{"href": "http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/1/90/pdf"}, {"href": "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/1/90/pdf"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11010090"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Agronomy", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.3390/agronomy11010090", "name": "item", "description": "10.3390/agronomy11010090", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.3390/agronomy11010090"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2020-12-08T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10.3390/agronomy11020226", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:19:35Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2021-01-26", "title": "The Effect of Crop Rotation and Cultivation History on Predicted Carbon Sequestration in Soils of Two Experimental Fields in the Moscow Region, Russia", "description": "

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in arable soils is a challenging goal. We focused on the effect of crop rotation and previous land use for future carbon sequestration on two experimental fields on Retisols with four contrasting fertilization treatments each. We analyzed the SOC dynamics and used the RothC model to forecast the SOC. We found a consistent increase in SOC stocks and stable fractions of the soil organic matter (SOM) with C accumulation in the next 70 years compared to the 90-year experimental period, more evident under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) compared with the RCP8.5 scenario. The expected increase in SOC will be higher in the crop rotation with a grass field than in the experiment with an alternation of row crops and cereals. The efficiency depended on stable SOM fractions, and fields with more extended cultivation history showed higher SOM stability. Proper crop rotations are more important for SOC stability than the uncertainty associated with the climate change scenarios that allows timely adaptation. The goal of a 4\u2030 annual increase of SOC stocks may be reached under rotation with grasses in 2020\u201340 and 2080\u201390 when applying a mineral or organic fertilizer system for scenario RCP4.5 and a mineral fertilizer system in 2080\u20132090 for scenario RCP8.5.

", "keywords": ["'4 per 1000' initiative", "2. Zero hunger", "fertilizer system", "Retisols", "S", "Agriculture", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "RothC model", "soil organic carbon", "long-term experiments", "climate change", "\u201c4 per 1000\u201d initiative", "13. Climate action", "anatomy_morphology", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries"]}, "links": [{"href": "http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/2/226/pdf"}, {"href": "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/2/226/pdf"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11020226"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Agronomy", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.3390/agronomy11020226", "name": "item", "description": "10.3390/agronomy11020226", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.3390/agronomy11020226"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2020-12-07T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "11585/912997", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:22:34Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2022-12-02", "title": "Multi\u2010modelling predictions show high uncertainty of required carbon input changes to reach a 4\u2030 target", "description": "Abstract

Soils store vast amounts of carbon (C) on land, and increasing soil organic carbon ( SOC ) stocks in already managed soils such as croplands may be one way to remove C from the atmosphere, thereby limiting subsequent warming. The main objective of this study was to estimate the amount of additional C input needed to annually increase SOC stocks by 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 at 16 long\uffe2\uff80\uff90term agricultural experiments in Europe, including exogenous organic matter ( EOM ) additions. We used an ensemble of six SOC models and ran them under two configurations: (1) with default parametrization and (2) with parameters calibrated site\uffe2\uff80\uff90by\uffe2\uff80\uff90site to fit the evolution of SOC stocks in the control treatments (without EOM ). We compared model simulations and analysed the factors generating variability across models. The calibrated ensemble was able to reproduce the SOC stock evolution in the unfertilised control treatments. We found that, on average, the experimental sites needed an additional 1.5 \uffc2\uffb1\uffe2\uff80\uff891.2\uffc2\uffa0Mg C ha \uffe2\uff88\uff921 \uffc2\uffa0year \uffe2\uff88\uff921 to increase SOC stocks by 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 per year over 30\uffe2\uff80\uff89years, compared to the C input in the control treatments (multi\uffe2\uff80\uff90model median \uffc2\uffb1 median standard deviation across sites). That is, a 119% increase compared to the control. While mean annual temperature, initial SOC stocks and initial C input had a significant effect on the variability of the predicted C input in the default configuration (i.e., the relative standard deviation of the predicted C input from the mean), only water\uffe2\uff80\uff90related variables (i.e., mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) explained the divergence between models when calibrated. Our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks in agriculture and accentuates the need to increasingly lean on multi\uffe2\uff80\uff90model ensembles when predicting SOC stock trends and related processes. To increase the reliability of SOC models under future climate change, we suggest model developers to better constrain the effect of water\uffe2\uff80\uff90related variables on SOC decomposition.

Highlights

The feasibility of the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 target was studied at 16 long\uffe2\uff80\uff90term agricultural experiments.

An ensemble of soil organic carbon models was used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions.

On average across the sites, carbon input had to increase by 119% compared to initial conditions.

High uncertainty of the simulations was mainly driven by water\uffe2\uff80\uff90related variables.

", "keywords": ["Carbon sequestration", "550", "multi-modelling", "630", "Climate change", "agriculture", "4 per 1000 initiative; agriculture; carbon sequestration; climate change; European targets; multi-modelling; soil organic carbon", "2. Zero hunger", "[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean", "Atmosphere", "[SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean", " Atmosphere", "Soil organic carbon", "Agriculture", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "carbon sequestration", "[SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces", " environment", "soil organic carbon", "climate change", "4 per 1000 initiative", "13. Climate action", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries", "Multi-modelling", "[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces", "environment", "European targets"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://cris.unibo.it/bitstream/11585/912997/4/European%20J%20Soil%20Science%20-%202022%20-%20Bruni%20-%20Multi%e2%80%90modelling%20predictions%20show%20high%20uncertainty%20of%20required%20carbon%20input%20changes.pdf"}, {"href": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ejss.13330"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/11585/912997"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/European%20Journal%20of%20Soil%20Science", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "11585/912997", "name": "item", "description": "11585/912997", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/11585/912997"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2022-11-01T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "3128171785", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:23:22Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2021-02-06", "title": "Feasibility of the 4 per 1000 aspirational target for soil carbon: A case study for France", "description": "Abstract

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is a promising way to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Based on a simple ratio between CO2 anthropogenic emissions and SOC stocks worldwide, it has been suggested that a 0.4% (4 per 1000) yearly increase in SOC stocks could compensate for current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here, we used a reverse RothC modelling approach to estimate the amount of C inputs to soils required to sustain current SOC stocks and to increase them by 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 per year over a period of 30\uffc2\uffa0years. We assessed the feasibility of this aspirational target first by comparing the required C input with net primary productivity (NPP) flowing to the soil, and second by considering the SOC saturation concept. Calculations were performed for mainland France, at a 1\uffc2\uffa0km grid cell resolution. Results showed that a 30%\uffe2\uff80\uff9340% increase in C inputs to soil would be needed to obtain a 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 increase per year over a 30\uffe2\uff80\uff90year period. 88.4% of cropland areas were considered unsaturated in terms of mineral\uffe2\uff80\uff90associated SOC, but characterized by a below target C balance, that is, less NPP available than required to reach the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 aspirational target. Conversely, 90.4% of unimproved grasslands were characterized by an above target C balance, that is, enough NPP to reach the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 objective, but 59.1% were also saturated. The situation of improved grasslands and forests was more evenly distributed among the four categories (saturated vs. unsaturated and above vs below target C balance). Future data from soil monitoring networks should enable to validate these results. Overall, our results suggest that, for mainland France, priorities should be (1) to increase NPP returns in cropland soils that are unsaturated and have a below target carbon balance and (2) to preserve SOC stocks in other land uses.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an essential condition for soil health and a potential sink for greenhouse gases. SOC dynamics in a long-term field experiment with mineral and organic fertilization on loamy sand Podzol in Vladimir Region, Russia, was traced with the dynamic carbon model RothC since 1968 until the present time. During this period, C stock increased 21% compared with the initial level in the treatment with the application of manure in an average annual rate of 10 t·ha-1. The model was also used to forecast SOC changes until 2090 for two contrasting RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios. Until 2090, the steady growth of SOC stocks is expected in all compared treatments for both climate scenarios. This rate of growth was the highest until 2040, decreased in 2040-2070 and increased again in 2070-2090 for RCP4.5. The highest annual gain was within 21-27‰ under RCP4.5 and 16-21‰ in 2020-2040 in 0-20 cm soil layer. The expected accumulation of C allows increasing current C stock 1.6-1.7 times for RCP4.5 and 2.0-2.2 times for RCP8.5 scenario. Modelling demonstrated potentially more favourable conditions for SOC stability in arable Podzols than in Retisols in Central Russia in the 21st century.

", "keywords": ["2. Zero hunger", "soil health", "S", "podzols", "Agriculture", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "RothC model", "soil organic carbon", "long-term experiments", "climate change", "\u201c4 per 1000\u201d initiative", "13. Climate action", "anatomy_morphology", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries"]}, "links": [{"href": "http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/1/90/pdf"}, {"href": "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/1/90/pdf"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/3125169411"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Agronomy", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "3125169411", "name": "item", "description": "3125169411", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/3125169411"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2020-12-08T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "3113153909", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:23:22Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2021-01-26", "title": "The Effect of Crop Rotation and Cultivation History on Predicted Carbon Sequestration in Soils of Two Experimental Fields in the Moscow Region, Russia", "description": "

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in arable soils is a challenging goal. We focused on the effect of crop rotation and previous land use for future carbon sequestration on two experimental fields on Retisols with four contrasting fertilization treatments each. We analyzed the SOC dynamics and used the RothC model to forecast the SOC. We found a consistent increase in SOC stocks and stable fractions of the soil organic matter (SOM) with C accumulation in the next 70 years compared to the 90-year experimental period, more evident under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) compared with the RCP8.5 scenario. The expected increase in SOC will be higher in the crop rotation with a grass field than in the experiment with an alternation of row crops and cereals. The efficiency depended on stable SOM fractions, and fields with more extended cultivation history showed higher SOM stability. Proper crop rotations are more important for SOC stability than the uncertainty associated with the climate change scenarios that allows timely adaptation. The goal of a 4\u2030 annual increase of SOC stocks may be reached under rotation with grasses in 2020\u201340 and 2080\u201390 when applying a mineral or organic fertilizer system for scenario RCP4.5 and a mineral fertilizer system in 2080\u20132090 for scenario RCP8.5.

", "keywords": ["'4 per 1000' initiative", "2. Zero hunger", "fertilizer system", "Retisols", "S", "Agriculture", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "RothC model", "soil organic carbon", "long-term experiments", "climate change", "\u201c4 per 1000\u201d initiative", "13. Climate action", "anatomy_morphology", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries"]}, "links": [{"href": "http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/2/226/pdf"}, {"href": "https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/2/226/pdf"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/3113153909"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Agronomy", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "3113153909", "name": "item", "description": "3113153909", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/3113153909"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2020-12-07T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "39341238", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:23:38Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2024-02-14", "title": "European Croplands Under Climate Change: Carbon Input Changes Required to Increase Projected Soil Organic Carbon Stocks", "description": "Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural systems is a pivotal strategy for promoting soil health and mitigating climate change. Global initiatives have set ambitious targets, aspiring to achieve an annual SOC stock increase of 4\u00a0\u2030. In the European Union, the recently approved Nature Restoration Law aims to increase SOC stock trends in the top 30\u00a0cm of cropland mineral soils. However, current monitoring and reporting practices in some countries rely on simplistic SOC models with default parameters, which may not provide reliable predictions. In this paper, we study the feasibility of a 4\u00a0\u2030 target in European croplands (i.e., an aspirational target proposed by The international '4 per 1000' Initiative), through estimations of required C input changes. To ensure robust predictions, we propose a novel calibration approach that links model parameters to pedo-climatic variables via statistical relationships from 16 long-term experiments. The effectiveness of the method is evaluated for three SOC models across 4281 sites from the European LUCAS soil survey. Our findings demonstrate that the statistical calibration of the multi-model ensemble improves the accuracy of 2015 and 2018 SOC stock predictions, compared to default parameterization. This improvement was however mainly due to the substantial enhancement of one of the models. According to the weighted multi-model mean, median C input changes to reach a 4\u00a0\u2030 target for Northern, Central, and Southern Europe stand at 1.85, 1.20, and 0.13\u00a0Mg\u00a0C\u00a0ha-1\u00a0yr-1 under RCP 2.6, and 2.21, 1.26, and -0.10\u00a0Mg\u00a0C\u00a0ha-1\u00a0yr-1 under RCP 6.0, respectively. To achieve the aspirational 4\u00a0\u2030 target, estimated C input change requirements exceed the predicted changes in net primary productivity under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. This emphasizes the importance of strategic land-use and land-management interventions to enhance SOC stocks.", "keywords": ["Carbon sequestration", "[SDE] Environmental Sciences", "340", "4 per 1000 initiative", "330", "Soil organic carbon", "[SDE]Environmental Sciences", "Climate change", "Cropland", "Multi-modeling", "Statistical parametrization", "[SDV.SA.SDS] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Soil study", "European targets"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://doi.org/39341238"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Science%20of%20The%20Total%20Environment", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "39341238", "name": "item", "description": "39341238", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/39341238"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "PMC8252610", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-10-06T16:25:03Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2021-02-06", "title": "Feasibility of the 4 per 1000 aspirational target for soil carbon: A case study for France", "description": "Abstract

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is a promising way to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Based on a simple ratio between CO2 anthropogenic emissions and SOC stocks worldwide, it has been suggested that a 0.4% (4 per 1000) yearly increase in SOC stocks could compensate for current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here, we used a reverse RothC modelling approach to estimate the amount of C inputs to soils required to sustain current SOC stocks and to increase them by 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 per year over a period of 30\uffc2\uffa0years. We assessed the feasibility of this aspirational target first by comparing the required C input with net primary productivity (NPP) flowing to the soil, and second by considering the SOC saturation concept. Calculations were performed for mainland France, at a 1\uffc2\uffa0km grid cell resolution. Results showed that a 30%\uffe2\uff80\uff9340% increase in C inputs to soil would be needed to obtain a 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 increase per year over a 30\uffe2\uff80\uff90year period. 88.4% of cropland areas were considered unsaturated in terms of mineral\uffe2\uff80\uff90associated SOC, but characterized by a below target C balance, that is, less NPP available than required to reach the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 aspirational target. Conversely, 90.4% of unimproved grasslands were characterized by an above target C balance, that is, enough NPP to reach the 4\uffe2\uff80\uffb0 objective, but 59.1% were also saturated. The situation of improved grasslands and forests was more evenly distributed among the four categories (saturated vs. unsaturated and above vs below target C balance). Future data from soil monitoring networks should enable to validate these results. Overall, our results suggest that, for mainland France, priorities should be (1) to increase NPP returns in cropland soils that are unsaturated and have a below target carbon balance and (2) to preserve SOC stocks in other land uses.