Establishing parkland agroforestry on currently treeless cropland in the West African Sahel may help mitigate climate change. To evaluate its potential, we used climatically suitable ranges for parklands for 19 climate scenarios, derived by ecological niche modeling, for estimating potential carbon stocks in parkland and treeless cropland. A biocarbon business model was used to evaluate profitability of hypothetical Terrestrial Carbon Projects (TCPs), across a range of farm sizes, farm numbers, carbon prices and benefit sharing mechanisms. Using climate analogues, we explored potential climate change trajectories for selected locations. If mature parklands covered their maximum range, carbon stocks in Sahelian productive land would be about 1,284\uffc2\uffa0Tg, compared to 725\uffc2\uffa0Tg in a treeless scenario. Due to slow increase rates of total system carbon by 0.4\uffc2\uffa0Mg\uffc2\uffa0C\uffc2\uffa0ha\uffe2\uff88\uff921 a\uffe2\uff88\uff921, most TCPs at carbon prices that seem realistic today were not feasible, or required the participation of large numbers of farmers. For small farms, few TCP scenarios were feasible, and low Net Present Values for farmers made it unlikely that carbon payments would motivate many to participate in TCPs, unless additional benefits were provided. Climate analogue locations indicated an uncertain climate trajectory for the Sahel, but most scenarios projected increasing aridity and reduced suitability for parklands. The potentially severe impacts of climate change on Sahelian ecosystems and the uncertain profitability of TCPs make the Sahel highly risky for carbon investments. Given the likelihood of degrading environmental conditions, the search for appropriate adaptation strategies should take precedence over promoting mitigation activities.
", "keywords": ["Carbon sequestration", "Carbon accounting", "Atmospheric Science", "Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture", "Economics", "Profitability index", "7. Clean energy", "01 natural sciences", "agroforestry", "Agricultural and Biological Sciences", "Climate change mitigation", "Range (aeronautics)", "Rangeland Degradation", "Natural resource economics", "Soil water", "11. Sustainability", "Rangeland Degradation and Pastoral Livelihoods", "Carbon fibers", "Climate change", "Business", "agriculture", "2. Zero hunger", "Global and Planetary Change", "Ecology", "Life Sciences", "Composite number", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "Soil carbon", "Physical Sciences", "Composite material", "Atmospheric carbon cycle", "Management", " Monitoring", " Policy and Law", "Greenhouse gas", "Environmental science", "Global Forest Transition", "Agroforestry", "climate", "Biology", "Ecology", " Evolution", " Behavior and Systematics", "Ecosystem", "0105 earth and related environmental sciences", "Soil science", "15. Life on land", "carbon sequestration", "Materials science", "Carbon dioxide", "13. Climate action", "FOS: Biological sciences", "Environmental Science", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries", "Drivers and Impacts of Tropical Deforestation", "Finance"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0438-0"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Climatic%20Change", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.1007/s10584-012-0438-0", "name": "item", "description": "10.1007/s10584-012-0438-0", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.1007/s10584-012-0438-0"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2012-03-28T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10.1038/s41598-019-55251-2", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-06-24T16:18:26Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2019-12-16", "title": "Assessing the impact of global climate changes on irrigated wheat yields and water requirements in a semi-arid environment of Morocco", "description": "AbstractThe present work aims to quantify the impact of climate change (CC) on the grain yields of irrigated cereals and their water requirements in the Tensift region of Morocco. The Med-CORDEX (MEDiterranean COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment) ensemble runs under scenarios RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) and RCP8.5 are first evaluated and disaggregated using the quantile-quantile approach. The impact of CC on the duration of the main wheat phenological stages based on the degree-day approach is then analyzed. The results show that the rise in air temperature causes a shortening of the development cycle of up to 50 days. The impacts of rising temperature and changes in precipitation on wheat yields are next evaluated, based on the AquaCrop model, both with and without taking into account the fertilizing effect of CO2. As expected, optimal wheat yields will decrease on the order of 7 to 30% if CO2 concentration rise is not considered. The fertilizing effect of CO2 can counterbalance yield losses, since optimal yields could increase by 7% and 13% respectively at mid-century for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Finally, water requirements are expected to decrease by 13 to 42%, mainly in response to the shortening of the cycle. This decrease is associated with a change in temporal patterns, with the requirement peak coming two months earlier than under current conditions.
", "keywords": ["Water resources", "Atmospheric sciences", "Agricultural Irrigation", "environment/Bioclimatology", "550", "Representative Concentration Pathways", "Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture", "Arid", "Rain", "[SDV.SA.AGRO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy", "Climate Change and Variability Research", "Plant Science", "Precipitation", "02 engineering and technology", "01 natural sciences", "Agricultural and Biological Sciences", "Downscaling", "Climate change", "Quantile", "Triticum", "Climatology", "2. Zero hunger", "Global and Planetary Change", "Ecology", "Geography", "Temperature", "Life Sciences", "Geology", "Morocco", "Phenology", "[SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology", "Seeds", "Physical Sciences", "Metallurgy", "Desert Climate", "Impacts of Elevated CO2 and Ozone on Plant Physiology", "Climate Change", "0207 environmental engineering", "Yield (engineering)", "Climate model", "Article", "Environmental science", "FOS: Economics and business", "Meteorology", "FOS: Mathematics", "Econometrics", "[SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology", "Biology", "Ecology", " Evolution", " Behavior and Systematics", "0105 earth and related environmental sciences", "[SDV.SA.AGRO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy", "Water", "FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences", "Carbon Dioxide", "15. Life on land", "Agronomy", "Materials science", "[SDV.EE.BIO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology", " environment/Bioclimatology", "13. Climate action", "FOS: Biological sciences", "Environmental Science", "[SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology", "Crop Yield", "Mediterranean climate", "Mathematics", "Climate Modeling"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-55251-2.pdf"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-55251-2"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Scientific%20Reports", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.1038/s41598-019-55251-2", "name": "item", "description": "10.1038/s41598-019-55251-2", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.1038/s41598-019-55251-2"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": 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