{"type": "FeatureCollection", "features": [{"id": "10.1007/s10113-020-01617-6", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-08-26T16:14:51Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2020-02-28", "title": "Future soil loss in highland Ethiopia under changing climate and land use", "description": "Soil erosion caused by climate and land-use changes is one of the biggest environmental challenges in highland Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess the future soil erosion risks and evaluate the potential conservation measures in the Rib watershed, northwestern highland Ethiopia. We used the HadGEM2-ES model with a moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenario (RCP4.5) to project the future climate. The future land-use patterns were predicted using the CA-Markov model. We integrated the RUSLE model with GIS to estimate the spatial distribution of soil loss and identify erosion risk areas. We found that the Rib watershed is highly vulnerable to future climate and land-use changes, leading to a high soil erosion risk. Despite slight growth of forest cover during the study period, the total soil loss for the watershed was estimated to be 7.93\u2009\u00d7\u2009106\u00a0t\u00a0year\u22121 in 2017 and was predicted to increase to 9.75\u2009\u00d7\u2009106\u00a0t\u00a0year\u22121 in 2050, an increase of about 23%. The increase in forest cover was due to the expansion of the area of eucalyptus plantations which are more prone to erosion. Moreover, field survey showed that the residual native forests are sparsely vegetated and mostly used for cattle grazing, increasing the erosion risk even more. In contrast, the combined use of afforestation with native trees and physical soil conservation measures in the upper areas of the catchment could decrease soil loss by 62%. Our results stress the importance of combining soil conservation measures, including converting eucalyptus plantations to native forests, to mitigate the effects of future climate change and increased agricultural production on soil erosion.", "keywords": ["2. Zero hunger", "13. Climate action", "HadGEM2-ES model", "Modeling", "Nature-based solutions", "CA-Markov model", "0401 agriculture", " forestry", " and fisheries", "RUSLE model", "04 agricultural and veterinary sciences", "15. Life on land", "GIS", "6. 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In this study, a typical artificial oasis in the Alar reclamation area of Northwest China was selected as the research area. We acquired Landsat images from the past 30 years for the study area. Based on these remote sensing images, continuous long-term series and multi-temporal syntheses were combined to classify and construct a landscape ecological risk index. Our results showed a clear downward trend in the overall ecological risk in the Alar reclamation area between 1990 and 2019. Through scenario simulation, we found that the ecological risk of the research area is predicted to decrease in 2025 and 2030 under the two scenarios of natural growth and strict government control. Compared to the natural growth scenario, the increased area of construction and cultivated land is predicted to be less under the government control scenario, which contributes to the decrease in the overall ecological risk. Therefore, when formulating the overall plan for land use, the government should strictly control the increase in construction and cultivated land and prohibit illegal cultivation and blind reclamation of cultivated land. We used a classification method that is more suitable for the local study area, thereby increasing classification accuracy, and in turn, simulating and evaluating future landscape patterns more accurately. Our study provides a good reference for similar studies to be conducted in arid regions of northwest China and around the world.", "keywords": ["[SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology", " environment", "Scenario simulation", "550", "13. Climate action", "[SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology", "CA-Markov model", "15. 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Therefore, when formulating the overall plan for land use, the government should strictly control the increase in construction and cultivated land and prohibit illegal cultivation and blind reclamation of cultivated land. We used a classification method that is more suitable for the local study area, thereby increasing classification accuracy, and in turn, simulating and evaluating future landscape patterns more accurately. Our study provides a good reference for similar studies to be conducted in arid regions of northwest China and around the world.", "keywords": ["[SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology", " environment", "Scenario simulation", "550", "13. Climate action", "[SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology", "CA-Markov model", "15. 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