{"type": "FeatureCollection", "features": [{"id": "10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-07-25T16:16:03Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2021-11-09", "title": "Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts", "description": "Acting in advance of floods, drought and cyclones often requires decision-makers to work with weather forecasts. The inherently probabilistic nature of these forecasts can be problematic when deciding whether to act or not. Cost-loss analysis has previously been employed to support forecast based decision-making such as Forecast-based Financing (FbF), providing insight to when an FbF system has \u2018potential economic value\u2019 relative to a no-forecast alternative. One well-known limitation of cost-loss analysis is the difficulty of estimating losses (which vary with hazard magnitude and extent, and with the dynamics of population vulnerability and exposure). A less-explored limitation is ignorance of the temporal dynamics (sequencing) of costs and losses. That is, even if the potential economic value of a forecast system is high, the stochastic nature of the atmosphere and the probabilistic nature of forecasts could conspire over the first few forecasts to increase the expense of using the system over the no-forecast alternative. Thus, for a forecast-based action system to demonstrate value, it often needs to be used over a prolonged length of time. However, knowing exactly how long it must be used to guarantee value is unquantified. This presents difficulties to institutions mandated to protect those at risk, who must justify the use of limited funds to act in advance of a potential, but not definite disaster, whilst planning multi-year strategies. Here we show how to determine the period over which decision makers must use forecasts in order to be confident of achieving \u2018value\u2019 over a no-forecast alternative. Results show that in the context of seasonal forecasting it is plausible that more than a decade may pass before a FbF system will have some certainty of showing value, and that if a particular user requires an almost-certain guarantee that using a forecast will be better than a no-forecast strategy, they must hold out until a near-perfect forecast system is available. The implication: there is potential value in seasonal forecasts, but to exploit it one must be prepared to play the long game.", "keywords": ["Early warning", "Forecast-based financing", "13. Climate action", "Climate adaptation", "Seasonal climate forecasting", "Meteorology. 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The Climate Protection Act, which was amended in 2021, therefore aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. At the same time, a favourable conservation status for habitats, species and water bodies are still the exception in cultivated landscapes, in spite of obligations under European law to achieve this. In this article, we estimate the potential impacts of various landscape designs and integrated land-use measures in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation, favourable conservation status as well as long-term food security and profitable land use. Based on these impact assessments, we then identify priority measures to be taken. The comparative assessment of effectiveness is intended to help prioritise the most suitable measures in view of limited financial and human resources.", "keywords": ["2. Zero hunger", "ddc:330", "forestry", "security of food", "climate adaptation", "15. Life on land", "7. Clean energy", "6. Clean water", "12. 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As the dataset builds on EDO's SMI, it therefore contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information.\n\nThis is version 01.01 of a previous dataset: Soil moisture deficit during the vegetation growing season, annual time-series, 2000-2019, Sep. 2020.", "formats": [{"name": "GeoTIFF"}, {"name": "EEA:FOLDERPATH"}, {"name": "WWW:URL"}, {"name": "OGC:WMS"}, {"name": "ESRI:REST"}], "keywords": ["Soil", "soil moisture", "climate change adaptation", "drought", "land use", "environmental pressure", "ecosystem degradation", "EEA38 (from 2020)", "United Kingdom", "Annually", "European", "Agriculture and food", "Climate adaptation", "Soil", "Biodiversity"], "contacts": [{"name": null, "organization": "European Environment Agency", "position": null, "roles": ["pointOfContact"], "phones": [{"value": null}], "emails": [{"value": "sdi@eea.europa.eu"}], "addresses": [{"deliveryPoint": ["Kongens Nytorv 6"], "city": "Copenhagen", "administrativeArea": "K", "postalCode": "1050", "country": "Denmark"}], "links": [{"href": {"url": "http://www.eea.europa.eu", "protocol": "WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link", "protocol_url": "", "name": "European Environment Agency public website", "name_url": "", "description": null, "description_url": "", "applicationprofile": null, "applicationprofile_url": "", "function": "information"}}]}, {"name": null, "organization": "European Environment Agency", "position": null, "roles": ["custodian"], "phones": [{"value": null}], "emails": [{"value": "sdi@eea.europa.eu"}], "addresses": [{"deliveryPoint": ["Kongens Nytorv 6"], "city": "Copenhagen", "administrativeArea": "K", "postalCode": "1050", "country": "Denmark"}], "links": [{"href": null}]}], "distancevalue": "5", "distanceuom": "km", "edition": "01.00"}, "links": [{"href": "https://sdi.eea.europa.eu/webdav/datastore/public/eea_r_3035_5_km_smoisture-anomalies-gs-2021_p_2000-2021_v01_r00/", "protocol": "EEA:FOLDERPATH", "rel": "download"}, {"href": "https://sdi.eea.europa.eu/data/0fa3c2b0-cfbc-474a-a96c-1ec86f9cac24", "name": "Direct download", "protocol": "WWW:URL", "rel": "download"}, {"href": "https://land.discomap.eea.europa.eu/arcgis/services/Drought/Growing_Season_Mean_Soil_Moisture_2000_2019/MapServer/WMSServer?request=GetCapabilities&service=WMS", "protocol": "OGC:WMS", "rel": "information"}, {"href": "https://land.discomap.eea.europa.eu/arcgis/rest/services/Drought/Growing_Season_Mean_Soil_Moisture_2000_2019/MapServer", "protocol": "ESRI:REST", "rel": "information"}, {"href": "https://sdi.eea.europa.eu/catalogue/srv/api/records/0fa3c2b0-cfbc-474a-a96c-1ec86f9cac24/attachments/sma_gs.png", "name": "preview", "description": "Web image thumbnail (URL)", "protocol": "WWW:LINK-1.0-http--image-thumbnail", "rel": "preview"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "0fa3c2b0-cfbc-474a-a96c-1ec86f9cac24", "name": "item", "description": "0fa3c2b0-cfbc-474a-a96c-1ec86f9cac24", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/0fa3c2b0-cfbc-474a-a96c-1ec86f9cac24"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"interval": ["2000-01-01T00:00:00Z", "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"]}}, {"id": "1395c806-9f07-4ed0-9a15-9d7ed5b417b2", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"themes": [{"concepts": [{"id": "environment"}], "scheme": "https://standards.iso.org/iso/19139/resources/gmxCodelists.xml#MD_TopicCategoryCode"}, {"concepts": [{"id": "environmental policy"}, {"id": "statistical data"}, {"id": "drought"}, {"id": "ecosystem"}, {"id": "land cover"}], "scheme": "http://geonetwork-opensource.org/gemet"}, {"concepts": [{"id": "EU27 (from 2020)"}], "scheme": "Continents, countries, sea regions of the world."}, {"concepts": [], "scheme": "https://rod.eionet.europa.eu/obligations"}, {"concepts": [{"id": "2023 2.2.3"}], "scheme": "EEA Management Plan"}, {"concepts": [{"id": "Climate mitigation"}, {"id": "Sustainability"}, {"id": "Soil"}, {"id": "Climate adaptation"}, {"id": "Land use"}], "scheme": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes"}], "updated": "2024-09-23T06:59:31.950536Z", "type": "Dataset", "created": "2024-04-15", "language": "eng", "title": "Drought impact on ecosystems_superseded (2000-2022)", "description": "This indicator only addresses meteorological droughts, hence the annual deficit in soil moisture due precipitation shortages as opposed to hydrological droughts which occur when low water supply becomes evident, especially in streams, reservoirs, and groundwater levels, usually after many months of meteorological drought.  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"links": [{"href": null}]}], "edition": "01.00"}, "links": [{"href": "https://sdi.eea.europa.eu/webdav/datastore/public/eea_s_eu-sdg-15-42_p_2000-2022_v01_r00", "protocol": "EEA:FOLDERPATH", "rel": "download"}, {"href": "https://sdi.eea.europa.eu/data/1395c806-9f07-4ed0-9a15-9d7ed5b417b2", "name": "Direct download", "protocol": "WWW:URL", "rel": "download"}, {"href": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/drought-impact-on-ecosystems-in-europe", "name": "EEA indicator: Drought impact on ecosystems in Europe", "description": "The indicator addresses anomalies and long term trends of vegetation productivity derived from remote sensing observed time series of vegetation indices in areas that are pressured by drought.", "protocol": "WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link", "rel": "information"}, {"href": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/drought-impact-on-ecosystems-in?portal_status_message=Changes%20saved.", "name": "Dashboard (Tableau)", "description": "Table: \"Annual drought impact 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