Timely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent and monitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five\uffe2\uff80\uff90level alert system, which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires in SA. The alert levels are: High Alert, Alert, Attention, Observation and Low Probability. The trend in the number of active fires over the past three years and the accumulated number of active fires over the same period were used as indicators of intensification of human use of fire in that region, possibly associated with ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC). An ensemble of temperature and precipitation gridded output from the GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System was used to indicate an enhanced probability of hot and dry weather conditions that combined with LULCC favour fire occurrences. Alerts from this system were first issued in August 2020, for the period ranging from August to October (ASO) 2020. Overall, 50% of all fires observed during the ASO 2017\uffe2\uff80\uff932019 period and 40% of the ASO 2020 fires occurred in only 29 PAs were all categorized in the top two alert levels. In categories mapped as High Alert level, 34% of the PAs experienced an increase in fires compared with the 2017\uffe2\uff80\uff932019 reference period, and 81% of the High Alert false alarm registered fire occurrence above the median. Initial feedback from stakeholders indicates that these alerts were used to inform resource management in some PAs. We expect that these forecasts can provide continuous information aiming at changing societal perceptions of fire use and consequently subsidize strategic planning and mitigatory actions, focusing on timely responses to a disaster risk management strategy. Further research must focus on the model improvement and knowledge translation to stakeholders.
", "keywords": ["0106 biological sciences", "Atmospheric Science", "Land cover", "Flood Risk", "Precipitation", "01 natural sciences", "Environmental science", "Impact of Climate Change on Forest Wildfires", "Global Flood Risk Assessment and Management", "Meteorology", "Engineering", "Machine learning", "False alarm", "Civil engineering", "0105 earth and related environmental sciences", "Climatology", "Global and Planetary Change", "Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Climate Change", "Geography", "Warning system", "Geology", "FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences", "15. Life on land", "Computer science", "Earth and Planetary Sciences", "13. Climate action", "Environmental Science", "Physical Sciences", "Land use", "Telecommunications", "FOS: Civil engineering"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/cli2.19"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.19"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Climate%20Resilience%20and%20Sustainability", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.1002/cli2.19", "name": "item", "description": "10.1002/cli2.19", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.1002/cli2.19"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2021-10-20T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10.5194/hess-19-4201-2015", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-05-24T16:21:18Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2015-10-20", "title": "Multidecadal Change In Streamflow Associated With Anthropogenic Disturbances In The Tropical Andes", "description": "Abstract. Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974\uffe2\uff80\uff932008) and land cover reconstructions (1963\uffe2\uff80\uff932009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km2) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963\uffe2\uff80\uff932009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km2) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or \uffe2\uff88\uff9231 km2) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr\uffe2\uff88\uff921, and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km2). Over the time period 1963\uffe2\uff80\uff932009, about 50 % of the 64 km2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Ni\uffc3\uffb1o\uffe2\uff80\uff93Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.
", "keywords": ["Technology", "Period (music)", "0208 environmental biotechnology", "Urban Flooding", "Precipitation", "02 engineering and technology", "Oceanography", "Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering", "land-use change", "Geography. Anthropology. Recreation", "Climate change", "GE1-350", "TD1-1066", "Water Science and Technology", "Climatology", "2. Zero hunger", "Global and Planetary Change", "Geography", "Ecology", "T", "Physics", "Hydrology (agriculture)", "Geology", "Programming language", "Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management", "Physical Sciences", "Cartography", "Land cover", "1443", "Hydrometeorology", "Drainage basin", "0207 environmental engineering", "Streamflow", "Environmental science", "G", "Global Flood Risk Assessment and Management", "Meteorology", "Afforestation", "Agroforestry", "Biology", "Land use", " land-use change and forestry", "FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences", "Acoustics", "15. Life on land", "Computer science", "Environmental sciences", "Geotechnical engineering", "Deforestation (computer science)", "13. Climate action", "FOS: Biological sciences", "Environmental Science", "Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment", "Land use"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4201-2015"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Hydrology%20and%20Earth%20System%20Sciences", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.5194/hess-19-4201-2015", "name": "item", "description": "10.5194/hess-19-4201-2015", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.5194/hess-19-4201-2015"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2015-10-20T00:00:00Z"}}], "links": [{"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "This document as GeoJSON", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items?keywords=Global+Flood+Risk+Assessment+and+Management&f=json", "hreflang": "en-US"}, {"rel": "alternate", "type": "text/html", "title": "This document as HTML", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items?keywords=Global+Flood+Risk+Assessment+and+Management&f=html", "hreflang": "en-US"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection URL", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main", "hreflang": "en-US"}, {"type": "application/geo+json", "rel": "first", "title": "items (first)", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items?keywords=Global+Flood+Risk+Assessment+and+Management&", "hreflang": "en-US"}, {"rel": "last", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "items (last)", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items?keywords=Global+Flood+Risk+Assessment+and+Management&offset=2", "hreflang": "en-US"}], "numberMatched": 2, "numberReturned": 2, "distributedFeatures": [], "timeStamp": "2026-05-25T06:23:26.606844Z"}