Timely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent and monitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five\uffe2\uff80\uff90level alert system, which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires in SA. The alert levels are: High Alert, Alert, Attention, Observation and Low Probability. The trend in the number of active fires over the past three years and the accumulated number of active fires over the same period were used as indicators of intensification of human use of fire in that region, possibly associated with ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC). An ensemble of temperature and precipitation gridded output from the GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System was used to indicate an enhanced probability of hot and dry weather conditions that combined with LULCC favour fire occurrences. Alerts from this system were first issued in August 2020, for the period ranging from August to October (ASO) 2020. Overall, 50% of all fires observed during the ASO 2017\uffe2\uff80\uff932019 period and 40% of the ASO 2020 fires occurred in only 29 PAs were all categorized in the top two alert levels. In categories mapped as High Alert level, 34% of the PAs experienced an increase in fires compared with the 2017\uffe2\uff80\uff932019 reference period, and 81% of the High Alert false alarm registered fire occurrence above the median. Initial feedback from stakeholders indicates that these alerts were used to inform resource management in some PAs. We expect that these forecasts can provide continuous information aiming at changing societal perceptions of fire use and consequently subsidize strategic planning and mitigatory actions, focusing on timely responses to a disaster risk management strategy. Further research must focus on the model improvement and knowledge translation to stakeholders.
", "keywords": ["0106 biological sciences", "Atmospheric Science", "Land cover", "Flood Risk", "Precipitation", "01 natural sciences", "Environmental science", "Impact of Climate Change on Forest Wildfires", "Global Flood Risk Assessment and Management", "Meteorology", "Engineering", "Machine learning", "False alarm", "Civil engineering", "0105 earth and related environmental sciences", "Climatology", "Global and Planetary Change", "Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Climate Change", "Geography", "Warning system", "Geology", "FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences", "15. Life on land", "Computer science", "Earth and Planetary Sciences", "13. Climate action", "Environmental Science", "Physical Sciences", "Land use", "Telecommunications", "FOS: Civil engineering"]}, "links": [{"href": "https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/cli2.19"}, {"href": "https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.19"}, {"rel": "related", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/Climate%20Resilience%20and%20Sustainability", "name": "related record", "description": "related record", "type": "application/json"}, {"rel": "self", "type": "application/geo+json", "title": "10.1002/cli2.19", "name": "item", "description": "10.1002/cli2.19", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main/items/10.1002/cli2.19"}, {"rel": "collection", "type": "application/json", "title": "Collection", "name": "collection", "description": "Collection", "href": "https://repository.soilwise-he.eu/cat/collections/metadata:main"}], "time": {"date": "2021-10-20T00:00:00Z"}}, {"id": "10.1007/s10533-023-01091-2", "type": "Feature", "geometry": null, "properties": {"updated": "2026-05-24T16:14:45Z", "type": "Journal Article", "created": "2023-10-15", "title": "Global observation gaps of peatland greenhouse gas balances: needs and obstacles", "description": "AbstractGreenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions from peatlands contribute significantly to ongoing climate change because of human land use. To develop reliable and comprehensive estimates and predictions of GHG emissions from peatlands, it is necessary to have GHG observations, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), that cover different peatland types globally. We synthesize published peatland studies with field GHG flux measurements to identify gaps in observations and suggest directions for future research. Although GHG flux measurements have been conducted at numerous sites globally, substantial gaps remain in current observations, encompassing various peatland types, regions and GHGs. Generally, there is a pressing need for additional GHG observations in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean regions. Despite widespread measurements of CO2 and CH4, studies quantifying N2O emissions from peatlands are scarce, particularly in natural ecosystems. To expand the global coverage of peatland data, it is crucial to conduct more eddy covariance observations for long-term monitoring. Automated chambers are preferable for plot-scale observations to produce high temporal resolution data; however, traditional field campaigns with manual chamber measurements remain necessary, particularly in remote areas. To ensure that the data can be further used for modeling purposes, we suggest that chamber campaigns should be conducted at least monthly for a minimum duration of one year with no fewer than three replicates and measure key environmental variables. In addition, further studies are needed in restored peatlands, focusing on identifying the most effective restoration approaches for different ecosystem types, conditions, climates, and land use histories.Greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions from peatlands contribute significantly to ongoing climate change because of human land use. To develop reliable and comprehensive estimates and predictions of GHG emissions from peatlands, it is necessary to have GHG observations, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), that cover different peatland types globally. We synthesize published peatland studies with field GHG flux measurements to identify gaps in observations and suggest directions for future research. Although GHG flux measurements have been conducted at numerous sites globally, substantial gaps remain in current observations, encompassing various peatland types, regions and GHGs. Generally, there is a pressing need for additional GHG observations in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean regions. Despite widespread measurements of CO2 and CH4, studies quantifying N2O emissions from peatlands are scarce, particularly in natural ecosystems. To expand the global coverage of peatland data, it is crucial to conduct more eddy covariance observations for long-term monitoring. Automated chambers are preferable for plot-scale observations to produce high temporal resolution data; however, traditional field campaigns with manual chamber measurements remain necessary, particularly in remote areas. To ensure that the data can be further used for modeling purposes, we suggest that chamber campaigns should be conducted at least monthly for a minimum duration of one year with no fewer than three replicates and measure key environmental variables. In addition, further studies are needed in restored peatlands, focusing on identifying the most effective restoration approaches for different ecosystem types, conditions, climates, and land use histories.